Local Election Results Roundup

While the Democrats appear to be reveling in what some are calling a Blue Earthquake, California—and more importantly the Bay Area—hasn't had many of the upsets that are drawing headlines around the country. So let's dig into what's happened in California, the Bay Area, and, most importantly, around Hayward.

Disclaimer: All results discussed here are preliminary and may change after the County updates results this evening and on Monday evening. All the numbers below were current at the time of writing, but represent only the initial results.

California Governor

Xavier Becerra became California's first Latino Governor in over 100 years. When Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race due to multiple sexual assault allegations, the entire Democratic establishment machine moved to Becerra and he leapt up in the polls by something like 20 points. Now Becerra is leading Steve Hilton by almost 30 points.

Propositions

Propositions 1, 2, and 3 are enjoying healthy support of around 60% approval. This will support affordable housing projects, increase the state's Rainy Day fund, and prevent a tax that supports schools and healthcare from expiring.

Proposition 4 is currently losing, which may stop some places from allowing public campaign financing if the trend continues. But it's pretty close.

Proposition 5, which would change how recalls are run, is currently set to pass, but it's very close—a 50,000 vote difference.

Propositions 37 and 38 have both passed with a 20 point lead. That will be a boon for developing communities like Dublin and Tracy where new homes are being built on former farmland. It will also be a boon for whatever research institute lands a multi-billion dollar grant for immunology research.

The Voter ID initiative was shot down (Prop 39), as were two of the efforts to limit the ability to raise taxes for both statewide and local projects (Props 41 and 43). Community Health Clinics won't be penalized for spending less than 90% of their money on services (Prop 44) and the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) appears to be stable for the time being (Prop 45).

But the billionaires won the fight against taxes, once again, by defeating Prop 40 (55% against) and it wouldn't have mattered anyway since Prop 42 passed (54% approval). This means that, not only will we not get any money to plug the hole made by the Big Beautiful Bill, future taxes on wealthy people will be a lot harder to pass—new taxes on financial assets (mostly owned by rich people) and other personal property are now prohibited.

There is no news on whether billionaire Sergey Brin plans to come back to California given how well his $100,000,000 investment to protect his $240,000,000,000 net worth paid off.

Local Ballot Measures

The Regional Transit Measure (RTM) appears to have won over voters this election. In Alameda County, it's sitting at 65% approval by voters, which is the second-highest approval rating after San Francisco. This should keep BART and AC Transit solvent, but it remains to be seen how those agencies will address their structural issues. The RTM gives them at least 14 years to figure it out, but given how slow change can come, that may not be as long as it seems.

Measure CC also saw overwhelming support from Hayward voters (65% approval). The Business License Tax changes will take effect in January and, according to past meetings, the City Council will meet before the end of the year to discuss how it will affect the current budget.

Local Elections

The local elections were a bit more contentious than we had initially been expecting. The switch to District-based elections has affected different races differently across the city, especially during a low-turnout Midterm election.

Hayward Unified School District (HUSD)

The Area 2 election, between mother and former PTA president Joann Guzman and conservative former-HUSD Board member Joe Ramos, is still too close to call. Despite significant support from unions and other Board Members, Guzman is barely ahead by less than 200 votes. This one is still anyone's race.

A similar story is playing out in Area 4 between Michelle Fernelius, a parent with significant establishment backing, and Maria Araceli Orozco, who has run for school board multiple times as a more conservative candidate. Fernelius is currently leading by less than 100 votes, so the updates tonight and Monday will be crucial.

Hayward Area Recreation and Park District (HARD)

The votes for HARD board look a little more settled, but they're hardly a blow-out. The election for Ward 2 has Sara Lamnin leading over Amanda Alysia Daniels (3,700 to 2,600). With almost 60% of the vote, Lamnin is likely to carry this one.

Ward 4 had a higher turnout in the race between Joseph Giltner and Paul Hodges. Hodges is currently leading Giltner with about 56% of the vote (5,058 to 3,924). Hodges has a pretty solid lead, but depending on how big the next tranche of ballots is, things could still change.

Hayward Mayor

Mark Salinas can comfortably declare victory over challenger Tom Wong after securing over 75% of the vote in the initial release. There is almost no way Wong would be able to make up 10,000 votes in any of the subsequent updates.

City Council District 1

Current Councilmember George Syrop is currently leading challenger Brian Schott with about 57% of the vote but that's only a 500 vote lead in a district with over 14,000 registered voters. Since this is the first round of District-based elections, it's hard to know what a comfortable lead would be, so it's possible that things could shift in the coming updates.

City Council District 6

Councilmember Julie Roche ran unopposed and has therefore secured 100% of the vote.

What These Results Could Mean

Statewide, it looks like ballot measures continue to be dominated by whatever billionaires have decided to bankroll this election cycle. The lack of coordination from the broadly Left coalition (organized labor and the Democratic Party) will likely mean more hospital deaths (Prop 40 loss) as the consequences of Medicare cuts in the Big Beautiful Bill come to fruition in the coming years. On top of that, it will be harder to tax the wealth of billionaires in the future if Prop 42 continues to hold.

In HUSD, the opening salvos from conservative challengers are looking stronger than expected with the shift to District-based elections. Ramos and Orozco are within 200 votes of victory and, should both pull ahead, could drastically change the tone of our local School Board. It's also shown, yet again, that endorsements and fundraising don't seem to hold significant sway in HUSD races.

For HARD, the first wave of challengers has shown the establishment some vulnerabilities in how they've approached elections so far. Giltner's aggressive messaging around Hodges, attacking his attendance, age, and lack of campaign, has driven a lot of votes—more in raw numbers than Sara Lamnin managed to get in her Ward. HARD Board Directors haven't historically had to campaign, so current Board Members may want to prepare for actual campaigns in 2028.

And on the City Council, Councilmember George Syrop may be seeing some limitations for his messaging within his district. District 1 has some of the most affluent areas in the City, mostly in the Hayward Hills, despite a heavy concentration of renters along Upper B Street and the flats. His messaging may not have resonated with the whiter, and more affluent voters who are most likely to turn out for a Midterm. His opponent, Schott, also received over $16,000 in support from The National Association of Realtors Fund as an IE and direct donations from the California Real Estate PAC, showing a well-funded enemy in landlords and realtors.

For 2028, differences in economic and ethnic diversity within City districts may shape the City Council in unexpected ways. But many of the races are still too close to call. We'll keep you updated as updates are released.